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Erie County – Building Permits 2023

Construction Word Cloud

Building permits serve as a critical indicator of economic health, reflecting trends in construction, real estate, and broader economic activity. Governments, investors, businesses, and policymakers closely monitor building permit statistics because they provide valuable insights into future economic growth, employment, investment patterns, and urban development. Understanding the economic impact of tracking these permits is essential for informed decision-making at both macro and microeconomic levels.

  1. Leading Indicator of Economic Growth Building permits are a leading economic indicator, meaning they signal future economic activity before it materializes. When permit approvals rise, it suggests that developers and homeowners are planning new construction projects, which will lead to increased spending on labor, materials, and services. This activity stimulates economic growth by:

    • Boosting GDP: Construction contributes significantly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Increased permits indicate upcoming investments in residential, commercial, and infrastructure projects, driving economic expansion.
    • Encouraging Multiplier Effects: Construction generates demand for related industries, including manufacturing (steel, cement, lumber), transportation, and professional services (architecture, engineering). Each dollar spent in construction circulates through the economy, creating additional economic value.


  2. Employment and Labor Market Effects The construction sector is a major employer, and building permit trends directly influence job creation. Monitoring permits helps predict labor demand in:

    • Direct Construction Jobs (e.g., carpenters, electricians, plumbers)
    • Indirect Jobs (e.g., suppliers, equipment manufacturers, logistics)
    • Induced Jobs (e.g., retail, food services, real estate agents)


    A decline in permits may signal upcoming layoffs, while an increase suggests hiring surges. Policymakers use this data to implement workforce training programs or adjust fiscal policies to support employment stability.

  3. Real Estate Market Stability Building permits provide insights into housing supply and affordability. Key impacts include:

    • Housing Supply & Prices: A surge in residential permits can alleviate housing shortages, stabilizing or reducing home prices. Conversely, a permit slowdown may indicate future price increases due to constrained supply.
    • Commercial & Industrial Development: Permit trends for offices, warehouses, and retail spaces reflect business confidence. Rising commercial permits suggest economic optimism, while declines may signal downturns.


  4. Government Revenue and Public Planning Local governments rely on building permits for:

    • Tax Revenue: Permit fees, property taxes, and sales taxes from construction activities fund public services (schools, roads, utilities).
    • Infrastructure Planning: Permit data helps municipalities plan for transportation, utilities, and zoning adjustments to accommodate growth.
    • Regulatory Adjustments: Monitoring permits allows governments to identify bottlenecks (e.g., excessive delays in approvals) that may hinder economic development.


  5. Investment and Financial Market Implications Investors and financial institutions analyze permit data to:

    • Guide Real Estate Investments: Developers and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) use permit trends to identify high-growth regions.
    • Assess Credit Risk: Banks evaluate loan applications based on construction demand; rising permits may indicate lower risk in mortgage and commercial lending.
    • Predict Commodity Demand: Building material suppliers and futures traders monitor permits to anticipate demand for lumber, steel, and other inputs.


  6. Economic Policy and Risk Management Policymakers use permit statistics to:

    • Adjust Monetary Policy: Central banks may consider construction trends when setting interest rates to control inflation or stimulate growth.
    • Mitigate Bubbles & Crashes: Rapid increases in permits may signal overheating (e.g., housing bubbles), while prolonged declines could foreshadow recessions.


Conclusion

Monitoring building permit statistics is vital for anticipating economic trends, guiding investments, and shaping policy. These permits influence GDP growth, employment, real estate dynamics, government revenue, and financial markets. By analyzing permit data, stakeholders can make proactive decisions that enhance economic stability, promote sustainable development, and mitigate risks. Ignoring these indicators could lead to misallocated resources, housing crises, or missed growth opportunities-underscoring the importance of vigilant tracking in economic planning.

 
Quarter
      Total Units
      Single-Family Units
      All Multi-Family Units
2-unit
3 / 4-unit
5+ unit
     
1997 Q1 68  bar 51  bar 17  bar 0017
Q2 123  bar 102  bar 21  bar 0417
Q3 143  bar 110  bar 33  bar 0033
Q4 129  bar 112  bar 17  bar 287
 
1998 Q1 165  bar 45  bar 120  bar 20118
Q2 115  bar 110  bar 5  bar 005
Q3 243  bar 98  bar 145  bar 120133
Q4 127  bar 90  bar 37  bar 2035
 
1999 Q1 61  bar 52  bar 9  bar 009
Q2 147  bar 123  bar 24  bar 2022
Q3 202  bar 115  bar 87  bar 0087
Q4 117  bar 83  bar 34  bar 2032
 
2000 Q1 104  bar 73  bar 31  bar 2029
Q2 201  bar 105  bar 96  bar 0096
Q3 137  bar 106  bar 31  bar 0031
Q4 96  bar 81  bar 15  bar 2013
 
2001 Q1 79  bar 68  bar 11  bar 209
Q2 158  bar 138  bar 20  bar 2018
Q3 158  bar 134  bar 24  bar 0024
Q4 175  bar 137  bar 38  bar 8030
 
2002 Q1 107  bar 93  bar 14  bar 0014
Q2 163  bar 141  bar 22  bar 0814
Q3 170  bar 126  bar 44  bar 0836
Q4 140  bar 129  bar 11  bar 605
 
2003 Q1 149  bar 101  bar 48  bar 0048
Q2 151  bar 139  bar 12  bar 480
Q3 191  bar 173  bar 18  bar 1008
Q4 192  bar 140  bar 52  bar 2347
 
2004 Q1 65  bar 65  bar 0  bar 000
Q2 126  bar 118  bar 8  bar 440
Q3 180  bar 102  bar 78  bar 0078
Q4 115  bar 91  bar 24  bar 0024
 
2005 Q1 96  bar 60  bar 36  bar 01224
Q2 105  bar 103  bar 2  bar 200
Q3 119  bar 101  bar 18  bar 6120
Q4 144  bar 136  bar 8  bar 440
 
2006 Q1 55  bar 55  bar 0  bar 000
Q2 115  bar 63  bar 52  bar 2050
Q3 60  bar 48  bar 12  bar 408
Q4 50  bar 48  bar 2  bar 200
 
2007 Q1 260  bar 58  bar 202  bar 00202
Q2 69  bar 67  bar 2  bar 200
Q3 100  bar 84  bar 16  bar 0016
Q4 129  bar 119  bar 10  bar 280
 
2008 Q1 33  bar 33  bar 0  bar 000
Q2 75  bar 62  bar 13  bar 085
Q3 95  bar 79  bar 16  bar 0016
Q4 158  bar 31  bar 127  bar 40123
 
2009 Q1 37  bar 37  bar 0  bar 000
Q2 62  bar 50  bar 12  bar 0012
Q3 95  bar 91  bar 4  bar 040
Q4 35  bar 35  bar 0  bar 000
 
2010 Q1 36  bar 36  bar 0  bar 000
Q2 126  bar 65  bar 61  bar 0358
Q3 61  bar 49  bar 12  bar 048
Q4 53  bar 37  bar 16  bar 0412
 
2011 Q1 26  bar 26  bar 0  bar 000
Q2 59  bar 59  bar 0  bar 000
Q3 73  bar 51  bar 22  bar 2128
Q4 44  bar 44  bar 0  bar 000
 
2012 Q1 38  bar 25  bar 13  bar 409
Q2 61  bar 28  bar 33  bar 0033
Q3 57  bar 57  bar 0  bar 000
Q4 83  bar 51  bar 32  bar 0032
 
2013 Q1 43  bar 43  bar 0  bar 000
Q2 202  bar 68  bar 134  bar 00134
Q3 272  bar 69  bar 203  bar 00203
Q4 91  bar 66  bar 25  bar 2023
 
2014 Q1 114  bar 96  bar 18  bar 8010
Q2 99  bar 74  bar 25  bar 0025
Q3 188  bar 130  bar 58  bar 6745
Q4 110  bar 64  bar 46  bar 0640
 
2015 Q1 94  bar 49  bar 45  bar 0045
Q2 72  bar 63  bar 9  bar 207
Q3 261  bar 93  bar 168  bar 60162
Q4 114  bar 88  bar 26  bar 0026
 
2016 Q1 124  bar 33  bar 91  bar 0091
Q2 332  bar 69  bar 263  bar 04259
Q3 128  bar 80  bar 48  bar 2046
Q4 108  bar 95  bar 13  bar 0013
 
2017 Q1 127  bar 33  bar 94  bar 0094
Q2 92  bar 58  bar 34  bar 2824
Q3 114  bar 54  bar 60  bar 0060
Q4 107  bar 75  bar 32  bar 0824
 
2018 Q1 62  bar 40  bar 22  bar 0022
Q2 121  bar 71  bar 50  bar 2048
Q3 92  bar 64  bar 28  bar 0028
Q4 104  bar 54  bar 50  bar 0050
 
2019 Q1 50  bar 30  bar 20  bar 0020
Q2 95  bar 74  bar 21  bar 2019
Q3 125  bar 78  bar 47  bar 41132
Q4 133  bar 77  bar 56  bar 0353
 
2020 Q1 87  bar 52  bar 35  bar 2429
Q2 37  bar 32  bar 5  bar 005
Q3 218  bar 87  bar 131  bar 44123
Q4 153  bar 56  bar 97  bar 4489
 
2021 Q1 97  bar 67  bar 30  bar 4026
Q2 113  bar 82  bar 31  bar 4819
Q3 90  bar 58  bar 32  bar 0032
Q4 95  bar 59  bar 36  bar 8325
 
2022 Q1 71  bar 47  bar 24  bar 8016
Q2 97  bar 62  bar 35  bar 2033
Q3 93  bar 63  bar 30  bar 01020
Q4 160  bar 132  bar 28  bar 2026
 
2023 Q1 61  bar 49  bar 12  bar 039
Q2 69  bar 47  bar 22  bar 0022
Q3 91  bar 48  bar 43  bar 0043
Q4 86  bar 56  bar 30  bar 41214
 


Sources: STI: PopStats and STI: Colossus