Mortgage Risk for Franklin County, MO - ERSys®
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Franklin County – Mortgage Risk

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Mortgage risk is a critical concept in the financial and real estate sectors, as it directly impacts lenders, borrowers, and the broader economy. It refers to the potential that a borrower may default on their mortgage obligations, leading to financial losses for lenders and disruptions in the housing market. Understanding and managing mortgage risk is essential for maintaining financial stability, ensuring access to housing, and preventing systemic crises like the 2008 financial meltdown.

  1. Impact on Lenders and Financial Institutions For lenders, such as banks and mortgage companies, mortgage risk is a primary concern because mortgages represent a significant portion of their loan portfolios. When borrowers default, lenders face losses on the principal and interest payments they expected to receive. In severe cases, widespread defaults can lead to liquidity issues, forcing lenders to sell assets at a loss or seek emergency funding. This was evident during the 2008 financial crisis, where subprime mortgage defaults triggered a chain reaction, causing major financial institutions to collapse or require government bailouts.

    To mitigate these risks, lenders assess borrowers' creditworthiness through factors like credit scores, income stability, and debt-to-income ratios. However, even with rigorous underwriting standards, external factors such as economic downturns, job losses, or declining property values can increase mortgage risk. Therefore, lenders must balance risk management with the need to provide accessible mortgage financing.

  2. Impact on Borrowers For borrowers, mortgage risk is tied to their ability to repay the loan over the long term. Taking on a mortgage is often the largest financial commitment individuals make, and defaulting can have severe consequences, including foreclosure, damage to credit scores, and loss of equity. High mortgage risk can also limit access to affordable housing, as lenders may tighten lending standards or charge higher interest rates to compensate for increased risk.

    Borrowers must carefully evaluate their financial situation before committing to a mortgage. This includes considering potential changes in income, interest rate fluctuations (for adjustable-rate mortgages), and the stability of the housing market. Failure to account for these factors can lead to financial distress and exacerbate mortgage risk.

  3. Impact on the Broader Economy Mortgage risk has far-reaching implications for the economy. The housing market is a key driver of economic activity, influencing construction, retail, and financial services. When mortgage risk is high, it can lead to a decline in home prices, reduced consumer spending, and slower economic growth. For example, during the 2008 crisis, the collapse of the housing market contributed to a global recession, with millions of people losing their homes and jobs.

    Governments and regulators play a crucial role in managing systemic mortgage risk. Policies such as stress testing for banks, setting capital requirements, and promoting affordable housing programs help mitigate risks. Additionally, central banks may adjust interest rates to influence borrowing costs and stabilize the housing market.

  4. Role of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Mortgage risk is also tied to the securitization of mortgages into mortgage-backed securities (MBS). These financial instruments allow lenders to sell mortgages to investors, transferring the associated risks. However, if the underlying mortgages are high-risk or poorly underwritten, MBS can become toxic assets, as seen in 2008. Proper risk assessment and transparency in MBS markets are essential to prevent such crises.

  5. Long-Term Stability and Access to Housing Managing mortgage risk is vital for ensuring long-term stability in the housing market. By balancing risk and accessibility, lenders can provide sustainable financing options while protecting themselves from losses. For borrowers, understanding mortgage risk helps them make informed decisions and avoid financial hardship. For the economy, effective risk management supports growth and prevents crises.

In conclusion, mortgage risk is a multifaceted issue that affects lenders, borrowers, and the economy. Its importance lies in its potential to cause significant financial losses, disrupt the housing market, and trigger broader economic instability. By addressing mortgage risk through prudent lending practices, regulatory oversight, and informed decision-making, stakeholders can promote a stable and accessible housing market.

A risk score measures the ratio of debt to income for the average mortgage in the county. A value of 2.5 or less is considered ideal. The risk score for this county is:

2.88

Most common risk score is:

2.8 to 3.2

 
DescriptionObserved Mortgages Under 1.2 1.2 to 1.6 1.6 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.4 2.4 to 2.8 2.8 to 3.2 3.2 to 3.6 3.6 to 4.0 4.0 to 4.4 4.4 to 4.8 Over 4.8

Franklin County6,690429475677866892898716573430310424
Missouri (in 000's)4142830435356514335272028
National (in 000's)21,4351,2391,3051,7552,1772,3922,3982,2361,9881,8261,3912,727
St. Louis County63,9673,5874,5676,9058,8658,9168,1306,7675,2644,0562,8934,017
St. Charles County32,7961,5501,8693,0344,2734,7844,3273,7543,0282,2361,6972,244
Jefferson County18,6141,2821,0891,7062,3302,5402,4402,1471,6981,2268731,283
Warren County3,024154180263343412389380276215165247
Crawford County1,2539412215715515315612796665374
Washington County1,2301611321501631611318974555262
Gasconade County84175801031021061057959483252
 
Per Cent to Total PopulationAverage
Risk
 

Franklin County2.886.417.1010.1212.9413.3313.4210.708.576.434.636.34
Missouri2.846.847.3610.3512.8713.4112.3110.418.376.434.836.82
National3.235.786.098.1910.1611.1611.1910.439.278.526.4912.72
St. Louis County2.845.617.1410.7913.8613.9412.7110.588.236.344.526.28
St. Charles County2.984.735.709.2513.0314.5913.1911.459.236.825.176.84
Jefferson County2.926.895.859.1712.5213.6513.1111.539.126.594.696.89
Warren County3.055.095.958.7011.3413.6212.8612.579.137.115.468.17
Crawford County2.657.509.7412.5312.3712.2112.4510.147.665.274.235.91
Washington County2.4213.0910.7312.2013.2513.0910.657.246.024.474.235.04
Gasconade County2.668.929.5112.2512.1312.6012.499.397.025.713.806.18
 
Comparisons to State Norms % to Total >= 150% % to Total < 50% 

Franklin County 93.8096.5197.77100.5599.46109.03102.83102.3199.9695.9292.87
Missouri 100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
National 84.5682.7579.1278.8983.2590.87100.25110.77132.45134.35186.46
St. Louis County 82.0297.05104.29107.65103.97103.23101.6498.3098.6193.6292.02
St. Charles County 69.1377.4789.38101.21108.81107.17109.98110.29106.03107.11100.27
Jefferson County 100.7479.5388.5597.24101.79106.47110.82108.96102.4397.08101.00
Warren County 74.4980.9184.0388.11101.63104.49120.73109.02110.57112.94119.69
Crawford County 109.73132.35121.0696.0991.08101.1397.3891.5281.9287.5586.54
Washington County 191.46145.88117.82102.9497.6486.5169.5271.8669.5487.5173.86
Gasconade County 130.44129.31118.3394.2194.02101.4190.2583.8088.7678.7690.61
 
Comparisons to National Norms % to Total >= 150% % to Total < 50% 

Franklin County 110.92116.64123.57127.47119.46119.99102.5792.3675.4771.3949.81
Missouri 118.26120.85126.39126.76120.11110.0599.7590.2775.5074.4353.63
National 100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
St. Louis County 97.00117.29131.82136.47124.88113.61101.3988.7474.4569.6849.35
St. Charles County 81.7593.62112.97128.30130.70117.94109.7099.5680.0579.7253.77
Jefferson County 119.1396.11111.92123.26122.26117.18110.5598.3777.3472.2654.17
Warren County 88.0997.78106.20111.69122.07114.99120.4398.4283.4884.0764.19
Crawford County 129.77159.95153.01121.81109.40111.2997.1482.6261.8565.1746.41
Washington County 226.42176.30148.92130.49117.2895.2069.3564.8852.5065.1439.61
Gasconade County 154.26156.27149.56119.43112.93111.6090.0375.6567.0258.6248.59


Sources: STI: PopStats, Circa April 2025